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This book is an investigation of the methodological and

epistemological foundati*** of macroeconomic theory, based on an

examination of the theories of Keynes and Lucas. It is divided into

two parts. In the first Professor Vercelli discusses the

methodological issues which lie behind the conflict among different

schools of thought in macroeconomics (equilibrium and

disequilibrium, risk and uncertainty, rationality and causality).

These issues are central to the current debate not only in many

branches of economics, but also in other scientific disciplines.

The traditional point of view of science based on equilibrium,

stability and determinism has been increasingly challenged by a new

point of view in which disequilibrium, instability and uncertainty

play a crucial role. This, the author argues, is bound to put

macroeconomics in a new, more promising position. In the second

part of the book the author compares the two main alternative

research programmes in macroeconomics: that outlined by Keynes in

his 'General Theory', and that suggested by Lucas, the leader of

the new classical economists.

Preface

1. Introduction

Part I. Methodological Foundati*** Of Macroeconomics:

2. Equilibrium, disequilibrium and economic theory

3. Dynamic instability and economic models

4. Structural instability and economic change

5. Uncertainty, predictability and flexibility

6. Rationality and expectati***

7. Probabilistic causality and economic ***ysis: Suppes, Keynes,

Granger

Part II. Keynes After Lucas:

8. Lucas's scientific paradigm

9. Lucas's heuristic model

10. The real equilibrium business cycle and Lucas's attempt at a

synthesis

11. Keynes's heuristic model: general observati***

12. Money and production in Schumpeter and Keynes: Two

dic***omies

13. Keynes's heuristic model: methodological ***ects

14. Conclusi***

References

Index

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书籍介绍

This book is an investigation of the methodological and epistemological foundati*** of macroeconomic theory, based on an examination of the theories of Keynes and Lucas. Professor Vercelli first discusses the methodological issues that lie behind the conflict among different schools of thought in macroeconomics, issues that are central not only to many branches of economics but also to other scientific disciplines. The author compares the two main alternative research programs in macroeconomics: that outlined by Keynes in his "General Theory," and that suggested by Lucas, the leader of the new classical economists. After examining the methodological underpinnings of these conflicting views, he concludes that a Keynesian conception of macroeconomics as a discipline autonomous from microeconomics and open to theoretical and methodological innovation should be defended, thus excluding fundamentalism either of the Keynesian or new classical varieties.