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　　In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundati*** for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial instituti*** the world over are revising their credit management strategies.

Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussi*** of the conceptual foundati*** of modeling with extensive ***yses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transiti***, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, colla***lized debt obligati***, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread opti***. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial instituti*** for future changes in the financial markets.

Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.

Preface

Acknowledgments

1 Introduction

　1.1.　A Brief Zoology of Risks

　1.2.　Organization of Topics

2 Economic Principles of Risk Management

　2.1.　What Types of Risk Count Most?

　2.2.　Economics of Market Risk

　2.3.　Economic Principles of Credit Risk

　2.4.　Risk Measurement

　2.5.　Measuring Credit Risk

3 Default Arrival: Historical Patterns and Statistical Models

　3.1.　Introduction

　3.2.　Structural Models of Default Probability

　3.3.　From Theory to Practice: Using Distance to Default to Predict Default

　3.4.　Default Intensity

　3.5.　Examples of Intensity Models

　3.6.　Default-Time Simulation

　3.7.　Statistical Prediction of Bankruptcy

4 Ratings Transiti***: Historical Patterns and Statistical Models

　4.1.　Average Transition Frequencies

　4.2.　Ratings Risk and the Business Cycle

　4.3.　Ratings Transiti*** and Aging

　4.4.　Ordered Probits of Ratings

　4.5.　Ratings as Markov Chains

5 Conceptual Approaches to Valuation of Default Risk

　5.1.　Introduction

　5.2.　Risk-Neutral versus Actual Probabilities

　5.3.　Reduced-Form Pricing

　5.4.　Structural Models

　5.5.　Comparis*** of Model-Implied Spreads

　5.6.　From Actual to Risk-Neutral Intensities

6 Pricing Corporate and Sovereign Bonds

　6.1.　Uncertain Recovery

　6.2.　Reduced-Form Pricing with Recovery

　6.3.　Ratings-Based Models of Credit Spreads

　***.　Pricing Sovereign Bonds

7 Empirical Models of Defaultable Bond Spreads

　7.1.　Credit Spreads and Economic Activity

　7.2.　Reference Curves for Spreads

　7.3.　Parametric Reduced-Form Models

　7.4.　Estimating Structural Models

　7.5.　Parametric Models of Sovereign Spreads

8 Credit Swaps

　8.1.　Other Credit Derivatives

　8.2.　The Basic Credit Swap

　8.3.　Simple Credit-Swap Spreads

　8.4.　Model-Based CDS Rates

　8.5.　The Role of Asset Swaps

9 Optional Credit Pricing

　9.1.　Spread Opti***

　9.2.　Callable and Convertible Corporate Debt

　9.3.　A Simple Convertible Bond Pricing Model

10 Correlated Defaults

11 Colla***lized Debt Obligati***

12 Over-the-Counter Defult Risk and Valuation

13 Intergrated Market and Gredit Risk Measurement

Appendix

References

Index

Darrell Duffie is the James Irvin Miller Professor of Finance at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. His books include Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory (Princeton) and Futures Markets (Prentice-Hall).

Kenneth J. Singleton is the C.O.G. Miller Distinguished Professor of Finance at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. He is the author of numerous articles in professional journals and an editor of the Review of Financial Studies.

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书籍介绍

In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundati*** for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial instituti*** the world over are revising their credit management strategies.

Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussi*** of the conceptual foundati*** of modeling with extensive ***yses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transiti***, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, colla***lized debt obligati***, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread opti***. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial instituti*** for future changes in the financial markets.

Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.